Global Economy: OECD Cuts 2024 GDP Forecast on Rate Hikes

Clare, I’m absolutely fascinated. If you can extend out your caution into 2026 and 2027. Pierre Olivier over at IMF was able to go out to 2028, can always see get halfway there and move out into 26 with the global caution on growth. Hey, thanks. Thanks. We’re not going to give you forecast

Numbers for those years. But what I can tell you is that what we’re seeing at the moment is wheat growth. We’re seeing it this year. We’re expecting it next year. And without policy change, actually, we don’t expect the levels of growth to

Pick up rapidly in terms of what we need to see a medium term to get economies growing again. We have scheduled later this week. David Folkerts-Landau of Deutsche Bank and he’s made real clear fiscal stimulus and a reach beyond austerity is important. You’ve lived it in the United Kingdom.

Are we being too austere? Do we need a global fiscal stimulus at this moment? No, we don’t think that’s what the global economy needs at all. In fact, it’s important that fiscal policy works in collaboration with monetary policy and certainly aligns whether it doesn’t conflict with what economies really need to get growth

Going is structural reform. It’s changes to things like trading patterns. We need to you know, trade should be driving global growth and we’re just not seeing that at the moment yet. We also need countries to be undertaking structural reforms to get more of their people into work. Extending working lives.

We need to be invigorating, reallocation across economies. It’s structural reform that can drive growth. And that’s what we’re recommending. What the OECD is describing today in their report is basically stagflation. And it’s something that’s concerning at a time when people are wondering how do we get out and whether monetary policy

Is the effective tool to do so if it hasn’t been as effective as people expected to this point? Clare. Do you think that monetary policy has the same effect on inflation and they stagflation area type of environment where price increases are being driven by things outside just simply the flow of money?

No, we’re not predicting stagflation. I mean, we’ve got low growth. Unit growth is low, but there is high inflation. And actually we are seeing that monetary policy is working. It is working its way through economies. And we are beginning to see the tide turning on inflation. Your headline, inflation is coming down

In some countries. Also core inflation. I mean, you’re right that there’s a lot of uncertainty around monetary policy at the moment. Quite how powerful is how long those lags will be, as you might expect, given a very long period of very low rates and very low inflation. You know, now we’re seeing monetary

Policy is harder to judge quite how powerful that is and how far it needs to go. On a policy level, on a fiscal policy level, how important is it to your forecasts to see some sort of let’s use the Biden administration’s word, diversification of supply chains are

What we’re seeing from the Bundesbank yesterday saying that one of the main risks, the German economy is its interconnectedness with China. How much is that your base case, a diversification, or to use another word, decoupling with the Western world and China? So we are not forecasting a decoupling, as you call it.

What we are worried about is the amount of trade that we are seeing and trade intensity which has stopped growing, you know, particularly in goods. We’ve seen a real slowing in the increases in trade and that is a worry. And we would caution governments from, you know, going further and space.

Of course, there are issues around security concerns, and it’s right to think about that. But actually, the vast majority of trade, you know, we should be seeing greater trade integration. There’s a lot more scope for services, trade. Those can really promote growth, can promote prosperity. And, you know, that’s what we would encourage.

The latest forecast from the OECD shows the world economy set for a slowdown as interest-rate increases weigh on activity and China’s pandemic rebound disappoints. OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli explains the results on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

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3 Komentar

  1. I do not understand why you are smile.

  2. Both of these ladies, especially Clare is so well-spoken

  3. So, it is constant grow that you need? In a fey years you will need 2 planets and a nother 7 billion idiots.

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