We’re in ‘the early innings’ of a commercial real estate downturn: Citymark Capital’s Daniel Walsh

A SLOW MOTION CRISIS MAY BE UNFOLDING IN THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET, AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND LOWER DEMAND FOR OFFICE SPACE, AND IT’S ALMOST A PERFECT STORM. AND CAUSING MORE DISRUPTIONS FOR THE REAL ESTATE AND HOUSING MARKETS. THE GREAT STATE OF OHIO.

SUPER REGIONALS, KEY CORPS, PLACES LIKE THAT AND A LOT OF YOUR EXSPER TPERTISE HAS BEEN I MANAGING PORTFOLIOS. >> YEAH, THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME THIS MORNING. YEAH, THAT’S ABOUT OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS, AND 20 YEARS OF REGIONAL BANKING, AND THEN I WAS

A COMMERCIAL INVESTOR IN THE REAL ESTATE SPACE. >> I CALL IT KIND OF A PERFECT STORM WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE POST PANDEMIC WORLD, ZERO INTEREST RATES FOR A LONG TIME. WE DON’T HEAR TOXIC ASSETS, REALLY, DAN, LIKE BEFORE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS BUT THESE LOANS

GOT TO BE UNDER PRICED FOR RISKS AND ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT THE FEDS ORCHESTRATED. >> I THINK THAT’S RIGHT. THERE’S A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND 2008. DURING THAT TIME YOU DID TALK ABOUT TOXIC ASSETS, AND AN UNKNOWN BOTTOMLESS PIT OF POTENTIAL LOSSES THAT NEEDED TO BE SORTED OUT.

WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT TIME NOW, AND THERE HAS BEEN GREAT DISCIPLINE WITH THE BANKS, AND THE REALITY IS WE HAVE SEEN THIS FLASH FREEZE, IF YOU WILL, IN THE BANKING SPACE WHERE RATES HAD THIS BREATHTAKING INCREASE THROUGH, YOU KNOW, WHICH HAD TO

BE DONE, AND I THINK THE FED HAS DONE A GREAT JOB CONTROLLING INFLATION AND GETTING US TO A POINT WHERE WE HAVE TO START TO SORT THINGS OUT. BORROWERS AND BANKS HAVE TO REFINANCE IN A MARKET WHERE THERE ARE $1.5 TRILLION OF

MATURING LOANS OVER THE NEXT 18 MONTHS. DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME YOU WILL HAVE STRESS, AND THEY ARE NOT TOXIC ASSETS, AND BANKS DIDN’T GET CARRIED AWAY WITH LEVERAGE BUT VALUES DROPPED BECAUSE OF THE INTEREST RATES. >> 1.5 TRILLION. OBVIOUSLY IT’S A DIFFERENT WORLD

THAN WHEN THE LOANS WERE FIRST WRITTEN. I THINK IN YOUR VIEW, YOU KNOW, IT’S GOING TO HIT SOME OF THESE BANKS. THEY ARE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE — YOU SAY THEY ARE NOT GOING TO ISSUE STOCK, AND YOU ARE GOING TO SEE LOAN SALES AT BELOW

MARKET — WELL, NOT BELOW BUT AT MARKET PRICES, BUT YOU WILL BE BELOW WHAT THEY WERE ISSUED AT? >> YEAH, THERE’S A LOT OF CAPITAL LINED UP AND SALIVATING OVER THE ISSUES. BANKS DON’T WANT TO SELL BIG BLOCKS OF LOANS INTO THE MARKET, AND THEY HAVE BEEN DISCIPLINED

AND THERE WILL BE LOANS THAT HAVE SHORT FINANCE AND LOANS WILL GET DOWNGRADED AND THE MORE CAPITAL THAT GETS PUT AGAINST THOSE LOANS MAKE THEM UNPROFITABLE. AND I THINK THEY WILL DO IT IN A MORE SURGICAL WAY WHERE THEY WILL LOOK THROUGH THEIR BOOK AND

MAKE SURE THAT THEY ARE NOT GOING TO BE TKDUMPED INTO THE MARKET. I THINK RIGHT NOW, THE SPV OR SIGNATURE, THEY HAVE GONE INTO THE MARKET TO BE SOLD. BANKS ARE GOING TO BE MORE THOUGHTFUL AND SELL THEM IN A ONE-OFF IN SMALL BATCHES.

THAT’S WHAT WE DID IN AN EIGHT TO TEN TIMEFRAME, AND IT WORKED OUT WELL. >> THE FED’S JOB MIGHT BE EASIER BECAUSE THIS WILL CAUSE CREDIT CONTRACTION, AND IT’S NOT THAT SERIOUS AS AN ISSUE IT SOUNDS LIKE. WE TALK ABOUT IT LIKE IT’S A

LOOMING TITANIC-SIZED ICEBERG THAT THE ECONOMY WILL HIT. YOU DON’T THINK THAT? >> NO, I THINK WE ARE IN THE EARLY INNINGS OF IT. BANKS, YOU THINK ABOUT THE FAILING IN MARCH, AND THE FED HAD TO LOOK AT THE GUIDANCE IN THE SECOND QUARTER, AND BANKS

ARE TRYING TO GET THEIR ARMS AROUND IT RIGHT NOW. THE TYPICAL AND LARGER REGIONAL BANKS, AND BANKS ACROSS THE BOARD, THEY AR

Daniel Walsh, Citymark Capital CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of commercial real estate, how the combined impact …
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11 Komentar

  1. Welcome to 2008 again

  2. There will be another 2008 housing crash. That’s when we should buy a house

  3. I am very glad that I found such a company with a serious team and with great goals I am happy I've achieved my dreams all thanks to Fabulous Hackers who made it possible for me.…

  4. Come to San Bernardino the big companies eliminated the small over flow facilities. We have signs up for huge acre-ft leasing. I do not know deal government is giving to companies prevent collapse. We are in a bizzaro world living off credit and houses 30 years old valued same as 1 year old house. I must be in the matrix

  5. Hedge funds will always tell you the worst and independent analysts will tell you the positive. Guess who benefits most from a downturn? Yep.

  6. So that someone can pick up cheap discounted assets.

  7. So for three years building owners and regional banks have been aware of this issue and we’re to believe nothing has been done in the meantime.

    They have been sitting on their hands!

  8. Umm half of ALL commercial space in Pittsburgh sits vacant. Prices have not dropped yet Once they do, its lights out Either your mortgage free and can afford to hold, or you'll be forced to sell Good luck levered investors

  9. Soft landing . Right 😂

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